Ua māhuahua nā mea i manaʻo ʻia o nā mahiʻai Lūkini no 2019. Wahi a nā loiloi, 30% wale nō o nā ʻoihana e ʻike nei i nā prospect no ka hoʻomohala maikaʻi ʻana o ka agro-industrial complex i ka makahiki e hiki mai ana - ʻo kēia ka hōʻailona haʻahaʻa no nā makahiki ʻehā i hala.
Ma lalo o ka hapakolu o nā ʻoihana e lana ka manaʻo e pili ana i nā prospect no ka hoʻomohala ʻana i ka agro-industrial complex ma Russia i ka makahiki e hiki mai ana. ʻO kēia ka hopena i hōʻea ʻia e nā loiloi o ka hui kūkā ʻo Deloitte i ka noiʻi "Agricultural Market Review", i hoʻomākaukau ʻia ma Kēkēmapa 2018 (loaʻa i ka RBC, ua mālama ʻia ka ana i ka hapaha ʻehā).
Ke hana nei ʻo Deloitte i kahi ʻano noiʻi mai ka makahiki 2015 ma muli o ke ana ʻana o nā ʻoihana e hana nei i ka ʻoihana mahiʻai. Wahi a nā hopena o nā pane a nā mea pane, hoʻoholo nā mea kālailai i nā ʻōuli o ka papa kuhikuhi, mai ka -1 a ka 1, kahi o ka hopena loiloi maikaʻi loa. He aha ke kumu o ka emi o ka optimism ma waena o nā mea mahiʻai Lūkia a he aha ke kūlana o kēia manawa i ka agro-industrial complex, RBK i kuhi ʻia.
Uuku loa optimists
ʻO ka helu o nā ʻoihana optimistic e pili ana i nā prospect no ka hoʻomohala ʻana i ka agro-ʻoihana paʻakikī i ka makahiki e hiki mai ana. Wahi a Deloitte, i loko o ka makahiki ka hōʻailona o ka papa kuhikuhi no ka loiloi i nā prospect no ka hoʻomohala ʻana i ka ʻāpana agro-ʻoihana i hoʻoliʻiliʻi e 7 mau helu, i 0,10 mai 0,17.
"No ka manawa mua i ka mōʻaukala o nā nānā, ka helu o nā ʻoihana optimistic e pili ana i nā prospect no ka hoʻomohala ʻana i ka agro-industrial complex ma Rūsia no ka makahiki e hiki mai ana ua hoʻemi ʻia i 30%," ʻo Dmitry Kasatkin, ke poʻo o nā papahana noiʻi i ka lālā ʻo Deloitte o ka ʻoihana, i wehewehe ʻia i ka RBC. I nā makahiki i hala, ua nui nā mea i loaʻa nā manaʻo maikaʻi: i ka 2017 (mau manaʻo no ka makahiki 2018) - 45% o nā ʻoihana āpau, a ma 2016 (no 2017) - 40%. ʻAʻole manaʻo ka hapa nui o nā mea pane i nā loli: ua hoʻonui ʻia kā lākou mahele e 16 pākēneka helu i ka makahiki i hala, a 57%.
ʻO nā pilikia nui no ka ʻoihana ka uku nui o nā kumuwaiwai ikehu, ka nele o ke kākoʻo aupuni a me ke kālā, a me ka hemahema o nā limahana kūpono, e like me kā Deloitte's survey 2018.
No ke aha i hāʻule ai ka poʻe mahiʻai i ke kaumaha
Ua wehewehe nā loiloi ma Deloitte i nā manaʻo pessimistic no 2019 me kahi "kahua kiʻekiʻe": i ka makahiki 2018, kahi papa helu o nā ʻoihana e nānā pono nei i ke kūlana o ka mahiʻai Lūkia i kēia manawa (ʻo ia hoʻi ma luna o ka awelika) i hoʻopaʻa ʻia, wahi a Kasatkin. I ka hopena o kēia makahiki, e ulu ana kā lākou helu i ka 7 pp. a e 85% o nā mea pane āpau. No ka hoʻohālikelike: i ka 2015, ua hōʻoia maikaʻi ʻia ka mokuʻāina o ka hui agro-ʻoihana Lūkini e 61% wale nō o nā mea pane. Wahi a nā helu a Deloitte, ʻo ka ʻoihana nui e pili ana i ka ulu waiwai i ka makahiki 2018 ka mahi puaʻa, kahi e ulu ai ka loaʻa kālā e 2017% i ka hoʻohālikelike ʻia me 79. ʻO ka ulu ʻana o ka loaʻa kālā ka mea i manaʻo ʻia i ka hana ʻana i nā mea kanu. I ka ʻoihana moa, e hoʻomau ka loaʻa kālā ma ka pae o kēia manawa, e manaʻo ʻia ana kahi hōʻemi mai nā mea hana waiū.
ʻO ka hāʻule o ka manaʻolana ma waena o nā agrarians Lūkia "like me ka ʻoiaʻiʻo," i ʻōlelo ʻia e ka mea kālailai Gazprombank ʻo Daria Snitko. I kona manaʻo, hoʻohuli ʻia nā manaʻo o ka poʻe komo mākeke e nā mea ʻelua. ʻO ka mea mua, ʻaʻole maopopo i ka ʻoihana ke ʻano o ka papahana hou o ke kākoʻo mokuʻāina no ka ʻāpana agro-ʻenehana, kahi ʻano nui no ka hoʻoulu ʻana i ka ʻoihana a me ka hoʻomohala ʻana i nā hoʻopukapuka. Ma nā mea kikoʻī, ʻaʻole maopopo ka poʻe komo i ka mākeke i ka mea e hiki mai i nā kōkua ma lalo o ka papahana mokuʻāina no nā lilo kālā no ke kūkulu ʻana i nā hale kōmahana. ʻO ka lua o nā kumu nā manaʻo pessimistic o ka mākeke e pili ana i ka noi o nā mea kūʻai.
Pili nā manaʻo pessimistic o nā ʻoihana mahiʻai i ke kūlana macroeconomic, ʻaʻole i ke kūlana i ka ʻoihana, i ʻōlelo ʻia ʻo Vitaly Sheremet, ke poʻo o ke kikowaena mākaukau ma ka KPMG paʻakikī agro-ʻenehana ma Lūkia. "ʻAʻohe o ka ikehu a me ke kālā kūpono i ka hoʻokele waiwai, a hoʻokau kēia i ka poʻe mahiʻai," i kākau ʻo ia. I nā makahiki i hala aku nei, ua hoʻonui ka ʻike o ka agrarian, i ʻōlelo ʻo Sheremet: i kēia manawa ʻaʻole lākou e hoʻopili wale i ka poʻe e hana pololei ma ka ʻāina, akā ʻo "ke kaulahao holoʻokoʻa o nā mea hana meaʻai mai ka māla a hiki i ka pā." Kūpono ke kūlana no nā mea hana i nā huahana i hoʻopau ʻia: ʻoiai, mākaukau nā mea confectioners e pāpālua i ka hana e 2024, kuhikuhi ʻo ia. No nā mea mahiʻai kanu mea kanu kuʻuna, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka ʻoi aku o kēia makahiki ma mua o ka wā i hala, i kākau ʻo Sheremet. I ka makahiki 2018, ua hōʻiliʻili ʻia ka hōʻiliʻili palaoa i 110 miliona mau tona, ʻo ia ka mea i emi iho ma mua o ka hopena o ka makahiki i hala o 135,4 miliona mau tona. ma mua o Kēkēmapa 14 (60 tausani a me 2017 tausani rubles i ke tona). ʻO ke kūlana me ke kākoʻo mokuʻāina, ke hoʻokō ʻole ka mokuʻāina i kāna mau kuleana mua, hiki iā ia ke lawe i nā mea maikaʻi ʻole i nā mea mahiʻai, ʻae ʻo Sheremet.
He aha ka hewa o ke kākoʻo mokuʻāina o nā mahiʻai
ʻO ke kākoʻo mokuʻāina kekahi o nā mea nui ʻekolu i ka hoʻokūkū o ka mahiʻai Lūkia ma nā mākeke honua, nā mea i komo i ka noiʻi Deloitte i kākau ʻia. I ka makahiki 2018, ua māʻona ka poʻe mahiʻai i ka loaʻa ʻana o nā kōkua ma mua o hoʻokahi makahiki i hala. Wahi a Deloitte, i ka makahiki 2018 ua ulu kēia mea hōʻike e 48% a hiki i ka 0,24 (a me ka helu ʻoi loa o 1).
No ka 2019 e hiki mai ana, ua hoʻolaha ke Kuhina Hoʻolālā i ka nui o ke kākoʻo mokuʻāina i koi ʻia no nā mahiʻai ma ka pae o 302 biliona rubles. I kēia manawa he papahana ko Lūkia no ka hoʻomohala ʻana i ka hale agro-ʻoihana a hiki i ka 2020. ʻO ka pono e "hoʻoponopono hou i ke ala i ka papahana mokuʻāina no ka hoʻomohala ʻana i ka mahiʻai" i hoʻolaha ʻia i ka mahina ʻo Iune e ka Hope Kuhina Nui Alexei Gordeev, ʻo ia ka mea nāna i mālama i ka mahiʻai. I loko o ka papahana mokuʻāina hou, i manaʻo nui ʻia, e hoʻolālā ʻia e hoʻololi i nā ala i ka hāʻawi ʻana i kahi kālā hoʻokahi a me ke kōkua e uku no kahi ʻāpana o nā kumukūʻai pololei, i hoʻolaha ai ka hope poʻo o ka Ministry of Agriculture Elena Fastova. Pono e hoʻopili i nā loli i ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka lawe aku i nā huahana mahiʻai. Ma ke ʻāpana o ke kānāwai Mei o Pelekikena Vladimir Putin, e 2024 pono ʻo Russia e hoʻonui i ka lawe aku i nā huahana mahiʻai i $ 45 biliona.
ʻO ka hoʻonui ʻia ʻana o nā huahana mahiʻai i ka makahiki 2018-2024, e like me ka helu a Deloitte, e hāʻawi ana i kahi huina GDP ulu hou aʻe i ka nui o 7,1 trillion rubles. ʻO ka hōʻuluʻulu ʻauhau ʻauhau hou i loaʻa mai ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka hana a me ka lawe ʻana i nā huahana mahiʻai e ʻoi aku ma mua o 1 trillion rubles. ʻO ka awelika o ka ulu ʻana o ka GDP ma ka hopena o ka hoʻonui ʻia o nā mea hoʻolilo ka waiwai i 2024% a hiki i ka 0,3.
He aha ka mea e hiki mai i ka mahiʻai honua
I nā makahiki he 1,5 e hiki mai ana, e ulu mālie ka mahiʻai honua, e like me ka ʻike o ka noiʻi mai ka Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). ʻO ka awelika ulu ulu makahiki he 40%. E hoʻonui ʻia ka hoʻonui ʻana i nā mahiʻai i nā ʻāina kūkulu, me ka ulu wikiwiki i manaʻo ʻia ma ka ʻĀpana ʻApelika Sahara a me ka Hikina Hema ʻo Asia. Aia ia ma Hikina Hema Asia (me Kina, India, Iapana a me Korea) aneane 90% o nā cereala o ka honua (e like me aneane 40% o ka laiki), ma kahi o 70% o ka ʻiʻo, ʻoi aku ma mua o ka hapalua o ka nui o ka nui o ka aila mea kanu a aneane XNUMX% o nā iʻa i hana ʻia. ...
Ma ka ʻāpana o ʻEulopa Hikina a me ʻAkia Waena, e pili pū ana me Lūkia, e ulu ana ka hana ʻana i nā huahana mahiʻai a me nā iʻa e 14%. E hoʻokūpaʻa ka ʻāina i kona kūlana ma ke ʻano he mea hana i ka palaoa ʻelua a lawe mai i kāna ʻāpana o ka hana honua a aneane 2027% e 22. E ulu ka hana ʻana o ke kulina i 17%, sunflower a rapeseed - e 25%.
E ulu mālie ka koi ʻana o ka honua no nā huahana mahiʻai i nā makahiki he 2 e hiki mai ana, wānana nā loiloi ma Deloitte. Loaʻa kēia ma muli o ka ʻoiaʻiʻo o nā pae ʻai ma nā ʻāina he nui i aneane hiki i nā pae saturation. ʻOi aku ka hapalua o ka ʻai mahiʻai mai nā mea ʻai nui ʻelima: raiki, kulina, palaoa, waiū a me nā huahana waiū, a me nā soybeans. ʻO ka makemake no ka palaoa, ʻoi aku i ka hapalua o ka hānai holoholona a me nā biofuels, e ulu ma ka awelika o 2,2% i kēlā me kēia makahiki. E ulu ka ʻai o ka honua i nā huahana waiū hou a hoʻoponopono ʻia e 1,7% a me XNUMX% i kēlā me kēia makahiki i loko o nā makahiki he XNUMX e hiki mai ana.
Mea kākau: Elena Sukhorukova.
E heluhelu hou aʻe ma RBC: https://www.rbc.ru/