I Kēkēmapa 2018, ua paʻi nā poʻe loea mai ka Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) i ka "Monitoring the Economic Situation" me nā ʻike hou e pili ana i nā loaʻa nui (e noʻonoʻo ana i nā hopena mua o ka helu helu 2016 o ka mahiʻai).
ʻO nā hoʻokaʻawale nui loa ma waena o nā kiʻi maoli a i ʻōlelo ʻia i loaʻa i ka helu ʻana i ka nui o kaʻuala (ʻo kahi laʻana, ke hoʻohālikelike ʻana i ka ʻikepili o nā hōʻike ʻelua no 2017, ʻo 35,9% ka ʻokoʻa.
Ma ke kumu o kēia, ua hoʻoholo nā ʻepekema RANEPA i ka nui o ka hana ʻana o kaʻuala Lūkia ma mua o ka mea i manaʻo ʻia (21 tausani mau tona), a ʻaʻole hiki ke kapa ʻia kēia nui.
Wahi a nā mea kākau o ka Monitoring of the Economic Situation, hoʻoweliweli ʻia ka ʻāina me kahi deficit a i ʻole ka hoʻonui ʻana o nā lawe mai.
I ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻaneʻane like i ka hoʻomaka o Ianuali 2018 i ʻōlelo ʻia e nā ʻelele o ka Chances Chamber, nāna i hoʻopaʻapaʻa ʻo ke kiʻekiʻe o ka mana ponoʻī o Rūsia i nā uala e pili ana i nā hopena o nā hōʻiliʻili ma 2017 i lalo o ka hōʻike i hoʻokumu ʻia e ka Kumukanawai o ka Security Food, ua hāʻawi ʻo Russia iā ia iho me nā uala e 90,7% me ka palena iki. 95%.
A laila ua nui kēia walaʻau i ka leo ma ka pāpāho, ʻoiai ʻaʻohe mea i ʻike i ka liʻiliʻi o kaʻuala. E like me ka manaʻo ʻole i kēia manawa.
POTATO ARTIMETICS
I ka nānā mua ʻana, ʻaʻole lawa ka 21,7 miliona mau tona. ʻO kēia mau mea, 13-15 miliona mau tona e lilo i ka meaʻai. Nā hua hoʻohui (ma kahi o 1 miliona mau tona), ka hana ʻana (1 miliona mau ton), nā lilo o ka waihona (1,5 miliona mau tona), lawe aku (150180 tausani mau tona), hānai pipi ... Ma muli o kēia mau ʻike, makemake nui wau e koi aku i nā mea kanu ʻuala e ulu hou aʻe. ... Akā he mau helu maʻalea kēia.
"ʻAʻole maopopo iā mākou ka nui o kaʻuala e ulu ai ma Lūkia," i ʻōlelo ai ʻo Vladimir Denisov, ka luna nui o kekahi o nā ʻoihana nui ʻuala a me nā mea ulu i ka Volga Federal District - ʻo Samara ʻo "Scorpio" - a ʻaʻole i ʻike ma mua. Akā ʻaʻohe mea nui ka helu kikoʻī.
A me ka ʻole o ia mea, maopopo leʻa ʻaʻohe hemahema o ka huahana ma ka mākeke.
ʻO ka hoʻonohonoho o ka mālama ʻana i nā māla he nui i kahi kiʻekiʻe, aia nā pahu hau, mālama ʻia nā ʻuala a hiki i ka hoʻomaka o ke kauwela. ʻO ka hōʻoia maikaʻi loa o kēia ke kaulike ʻuala nui ma nā pale kaulike o nā ʻoihana Lūkia he nui e Iune 2018, ʻaʻole i ʻike ʻia ma muli o ka lawe nui ʻia o kaʻuala mai ʻAigupita. ʻO kekahi mea nui hou aʻe: ua hōʻea ka mākeke i kona palena, ua māʻona, a i nā makahiki e hiki mai ana, ʻaʻole e manaʻo ʻia ka ulu ʻana a me ka hōʻole. "
Mai ka manaʻo o Denisov, ʻaʻohe mea hewa i kēia kūpaʻa: ʻo nā ʻoihana o ka ʻoihana ʻuala, ka mea nona ka waihona ʻenehana kūpono a lawe i nā koina no nā "mea hoʻohana" wale nō, hiki ke hoʻomau me ka palekana i kā lākou hana.
ʻAʻole e lawe ka hana uala i ka loaʻa kālā he nui, akā e kōkua ia e noho i kahi plus stable. "ʻAʻohe wahi maʻalahi e hāʻule hou ai nā kumukūʻai," wahi a ke poʻo o Scorpion. "Ke hana nei nā mea hana ma ke kaʻe o ka loaʻa pono."
E ʻoi aku ka paʻakikī no ka poʻe hoʻomaka, ʻo ke kumukūʻai o kaʻuala ma ia mau mahiʻai e ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe ma mua o ka awelika, ʻo ia hoʻi e liʻiliʻi nā manawa e noho ai ma ka mākeke.
NĀ PERSPECTIVES MAKEKE
I ke kamaʻilio ʻana e pili ana i nā ala kūpono o ka hoʻomohala ʻana i ka mahiʻai Lūkini, hāʻawi mau ka poʻe loea i ʻelua mau hopena. ʻO kekahi o lākou ka hoʻoikaika ʻana i ka lawe aku i waho. Wahi a ka papahana pekelala "Export o nā huahana mahiʻai" i hoʻopili ʻia i loko o ka papahana hou no ka hoʻomohala ʻana i ka mahiʻai, ʻo ka nui o ka lawe ʻia ʻana o nā huahana mahiʻai i ka hopena o 2024 he $ 45 biliona. Akā ʻaʻole manaʻo nā optimists i nā moʻolelo mai nā mea kanu uala i kēia ala.
I ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, hiki i nā mea hana Lūkini ke hāʻawi i ka papa ʻaina a me nā hua uala ma nā ʻāina kokoke, akā paʻakikī loa e hoʻokumu i nā kahawai kūmau me nā ʻāina kokoke, a pinepine ka hoʻoholo e hāʻawi a hāʻawi ʻole i kahi huahana i ʻoi aku ka politika ma mua o ka hoʻokele waiwai.
Eia hou, ʻo ka pono no kaʻuala ma Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan ʻaʻole i ʻike ʻia i kēlā me kēia makahiki, akā ʻo ka hapa nui i nā wā ʻohiʻohi maikaʻi ʻole.
Ke ulu ikaika nei kēia mau ʻāina āpau i ka ulu ʻana o kaʻuala a ua kūleʻa nui i kēia. No laila, ma Uzbekistan, aia ka hua o kaʻuala ma ka pae o 240-250 keneta / ha, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka hōʻiliʻili nui ma 1,5-2 miliona mau tona. I Kazakhstan, aia nā hua o ka ʻuala ma kahi o 300-400 c / ha, ʻoi aku ka ʻohi makahiki i 3 miliona mau tona.
Ke ʻimi pū nei ʻo Azerbaijan no kahi pae o ka lawa pono i ka uala. Eia nō naʻe, ke kāohi ʻia nei ka hoʻomohala ʻana o nā mea hoʻolilo ma Rūsia e nā paʻakikī a me kahi ʻano "kūwaho ʻole".
Wahi a Vitaly Leis, ka hope kuhina nui no ka hana ʻuala ma KRiMM, ʻo ka pilikia nui a kāna hui e kū nei i ka hoʻonohonoho ʻana i nā hoʻouna hoʻouna, ʻo ka nele o ka loiloi.
He pipiʻi loa ka hoʻouna ʻana i ka ʻuala ma ke ala ma kahi mamao aku, a ʻaʻole hiki ke lawe ʻia nā mea palaho e ke kaʻaahi i nā wā hoʻoilo ma muli o ka hemahema loa o nā kaʻa pumehana.
ʻAʻole ia he mea kūpono ʻole i ʻōlelo ʻia e ka poʻe loea mākeke he nui ka hoʻohiki o ka lawe aku i nā huahana i hana hohonu ʻia ma mua o ka uala maka. Eia kekahi, hāʻawi ʻia i ka helu haʻahaʻa o ka ruble.
ʻO ka hoʻomohala ʻana i ka hana ʻana kekahi ala ʻē aʻe no ka ulu ʻana o ka ʻoihana ʻuala. Akā ʻo ka neʻe ʻana e koi ʻia i nā hoʻopukapuka nui, kahi i ʻoi aku i ka ikaika o ka hapa nui o nā mea mahiʻai, a no laila e lawe ʻia me ka lohi loa.
NA KUMU E ulu ana
Pehea ka lōʻihi e kū ai ka mākeke ʻuala? ʻAʻole hiki i kekahi o nā loea ke kapa inoa i nā lā kikoʻī. ʻOiai maopopo ke ʻano maʻamau: ʻo ka nui o ka hana ʻana i kaʻuala ma nā mahiʻai ponoʻī e hōʻemi loa ia, a ma muli o kēia, e ulu ana ka ʻenehana ʻoihana. Hiki i ke kaʻina hoʻololi ke 10-15 mau makahiki: ʻo ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻo kēia ka lōʻihi o ka hoʻololi ʻana i nā hanauna.
I kēia wā, haʻalele nā ʻoihana liʻiliʻi he nui i ka mākeke i hiki ʻole ke kū i ke kūlana o ka loaʻa haʻahaʻa a ʻaʻole i kū i ka hoʻokūkū. He mea nui ka niche i hakahaka ʻia. Wahi a ka luna hoʻomalu o ka Potato Union Aleksey Krasilnikov, hiki ke hana pālua ka hana ʻana i kaʻuala.
E hōʻike ana ka manawa i ka nui o ka noi o kēia leo. Hiki paha i ka hoihoi i ka ʻai olakino ke alakaʻi i ka hōʻemi o ka nui o kaʻuala i ka papaʻai o ka awelika Lūkini. A ʻo ka hope paha: ʻo nā cataclysms hoʻokele waiwai pinepine e alakaʻi i ka hoʻonui ʻia o ka kaulana o kāu huahana Lūkini punahele.
I kēlā me kēia hihia, kakahiaka nui e unuhi i nā prospect e hiki mai ana i nā kiʻi kikoʻī.